Grammys 2014: White party

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Those who like R. Kelly also like International Hernia Awareness Day: White House petitions as a social network

By Chris Wilson

Meet "E.F." of Vienna, Va., the most civically active person in America.

There are currently 352 petitions on the White House’s We the People site, where users create petitions and vie for the administration’s attention by gathering digital signatures. As of Thursday afternoon, E. F. had signed 173 of them.

The White House does not identify petitioners beyond their initials and location, so we don’t know the identity of E.F. in ZIP code 22180. We do know that E.F. supports the following causes and organizations: Legalizing marijuana, gun control, government-subsidized maternity leave, the abolition of the penny, wrestling, International Congenital Diaphragmatic Hernia Awareness Day, NASA, marching bands, work permits for H4 visa holders, the Lunar New Year, and about 160 other causes.

The petitions on We the People usually make news for their jejune absurdity. Nearly 9,000 people support changing the national anthem to R. Kelly's "Ignition (Remix)", and 34,435 people lent their good name in support of the construction of a Death Star—a request the White House declined on the grounds that it would add $850 quadrillion dollars to the national debt. (Incidentally, the White House has since raised the signature threshold for petitions to receive a response from 25,000 signatures to 100,000.)

The majority of them, however, are earnest, if sometimes unencumbered by clarity. When you dig into the data a bit, you find something interesting: E.F. is far from an anomaly in his or her double dipping. Of the 6.9 million signatures I downloaded from the site, I was able to identify only 2.2 million unique people. That real number of unique participants is a bit higher, because 18 percent of the signatures did not include either a name or a ZIP code, and because this figure undercounts people with the same initials in the same ZIP code. But the pattern is familiar: A group of "supersigners" making up less than 10 percent of respondents are responsible for 40 percent of the signatures on the site.

There’s valuable information in examining how the more earnest petitions are connected based on which ones the same people like to sign. If you compare any of the dozen petitions calling for stricter gun control measures, you will see a higher percentage of the same people have signed several of them—no surprise there. The same is true of the dozen-some petitions that oppose stricter gun control. Very few people have signed both petitions supporting and opposing gun control, as you might imagine.

But members of both clusters of petitioners have signed proposals for better mental heath facilities and care, on the premise that it might prevent people like Adam Lanza, the shooter in the Newtown, Conn. tragedy, from carrying out future massacres.

When you think about online petitions as a social network, with "friendships" forming between petitions when they share many of the same signatories, you see areas of consensus form around topics that share common ground between issues. In the following interactive, I’ve arranged the petitions as a network diagram in just this manner, connecting any two petitions that share at least 7.5 percent of the same signers. (That’s a high level of commonality in a very large community of people.) I’ve labeled the petitions by hand so that one can visually identify communities. Feel free to take issue with my categories. They are meant only for loose organizational purposes.

As you see, the petitions cluster naturally by subject and by ideology.

Core liberal causes like separation of church and state are deeply entwined with marijuana legalization efforts, as you can see by the dense cluster of blue and green. (Election reform and LGBT rights are in there too.) The animal rights activists, on the other hand—the orange dots—are off in a private constellation. Marijuana rights also crop up near the core conservative causes, like the repeal of Obamacare and even the impeachment of the president.

In other words, the polar ends of the political spectrum are connected by a concern for mental health facilities and a love of cannabis.

You can expect to hear more about these petitions over the next four years, because the White House has big plans for the site. In the old days—last month—if you wanted to analyze data from the site, you had to write your own code, as I did for this column in November. Two weeks ago, the White House Office of Digital Strategy hosted a "hackathon" in which it invited two-dozen programmers to start playing with the raw data that powers the petition site. (You can see my presentation there featured in seconds 52, 53 and 54 of this video.) You still have to write some code to get the data—feel free to use mine, or skip straight to the data for this column—but it just got a lot easier.

I give the White House credit for correctly labeling its event a "hackathon" in spite of the (unfair) connotations hacking has with destructive minds. Questions about the code, or anything else? I'm at cewilson@yahoo-inc.com.

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White House says jobs report is a good sign, but warns of budget cuts

People wait on line to meet with recruiters during a job fair in Melville, N.Y., last year. (Shannon Stapleton ……look out for the impact of across-the-board spending cuts known in D.C. as “sequestration.”

The American economy added 236,000 jobs in the month of February and unemployment dropped from 7.9 in January to 7.7 percent last month, according to new figures released on Friday morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The White House cheered the report. Alan B. Krueger, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, said in a White House blog post that “while more work remains to be done, today’s employment report provides evidence that the recovery that began in mid-2009 is gaining traction.”

But Krueger emphasized that the data came from early February, “before sequestration began.” Those cuts, roughly $85 billion for the rest of the fiscal year, are expected to whittle down economic growth and cost jobs, according to nonpartisan analysts.

“The monthly employment and unemployment figures can be volatile, and payroll employment estimates can be subject to substantial revision,” Krueger said. “Therefore, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report and it is informative to consider each report in the context of other data that are becoming available.”

Krueger's comments recalled President Barack Obama's March 1 admonition that failing to replace sequestration would hold down what remains a slow but steady recovery—comments that sounded very much like an insurance policy against the potential political damage to come. "Every time that we get a piece of economic news, over the next month, next two months, next six months, as long as the sequester is in place, we’ll know that that economic news could have been better if Congress had not failed to act," Obama said.

Republicans greeted the report as decent news, but they declared the economy was still weaker than it should be.

“Any job creation is positive news,” Republican House Speaker John Boehner said in a statement. “But the fact is unemployment in America is still way above the levels the Obama White House projected” four years ago in the debate over the stimulus package.

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Poll: Race for White House remains tight in 3 key states

Obama and Romney (AP Photo)

President Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney remain locked in a tight race in the key swing states of Colorado, Wisconsin, and Virginia, according to a Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News poll released early Wednesday.

Obama leads by 49-45 percent in Virginia and 51-45 percent in Wisconsin, while Romney has a 50-45 percent advantage in Colorado.

Obama won all three states in the 2008 election.

The poll results "highlight the stubborn divisions of this year's presidential race among two of the most important voting groups in the most hotly contested states," namely white working-class voters and women.

The Times says Romney has been able to withstand Democratic efforts to portray him as an "out-of-touch elitist" and is so far maintaining  "the traditional — and sizable — Republican advantage" with white working-class voters.

Obama, meanwhile, has fought off Republican attempts to weaken his popularity with women, and "is holding on to their crucial support in most battleground states."

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White House defends tax plan against study

President Barack Obama speaks at a campaign event in Texas (Eric Gay/AP)

The White House hit back hard late Tuesday at a study by accounting firm Ernst and Young that charged President Barack Obama's signature tax proposal could cost 710,000 jobs, claiming it's chock full of "major flaws, errors and misleading statements."

Obama has called for extending Bush-era tax cuts on income up to $250,000, a move that chiefly would benefit the middle class, while letting lower tax rates on upper brackets expire on schedule come January 1. (The richest Americans would still get tax cuts on their first $250,000 of income.) The president has said that the country cannot afford the Republican plan to extend all of the tax cuts, and warned that doing so would force cuts to popular government programs.

On the official White House blog, senior Obama economic policy aide Jason Furman ripped the new study. Among his complaints:

-       The report, funded by pro-business groups generally hostile to Obama's agenda, assumes that none of the revenue generated by raising taxes on the richest Americans goes to deficit reduction. Instead, it assumes the money would go to expanding government spending. But the president has called for the money to go to reducing the federal deficit and national debt.

-       The report omits Obama's push for new tax cuts to spur private-sector hiring and investment. By ignoring the predicted impact on jobs growth, Furman argued, the study distorts the impact of the president's agenda.

Furman, whose title is Principal Deputy Director of the National Economic Council, also charged that the study's conclusions are "dramatically out-of-line with estimates by other analysts" like the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the non-partisan standard for judging the economic impact of federal legislation. And he underlines that Obama's tax proposal would let rates climb back to where they were under President Bill Clinton — when the economy created millions of jobs.

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White House could unveil mortgage plan next week (Reuters)

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Obama administration is considering unveiling new plans next week to revive the ailing housing market and reduce foreclosures, including an effort to help troubled borrowers refinance their mortgages.

The administration has been working for weeks on how to implement a mortgage relief program. President Barack Obama could include a nod to the plan in a speech on job creation next week, sources familiar with the administration's plans said.

The refinancing initiative would allow certain borrowers to refinance loans that are backed by government-owned Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac or the Federal Housing Administration, the sources said.

A broad-based effort to automatically refinance millions of mortgages is not in the works, yet the administration is looking to take targeted changes to an existing program that would allow more borrowers to take advantage of low mortgage rates, including allowing borrowers to refinance even if they owe a significant amount above their property's current value.

The idea is to help struggling borrowers refinance at current low interest rates, which would cut their monthly payments and free up cash for other spending. The hope is that this could drum up overall business activity.

The average rate on a 30-year fixed loan was 4.22 percent last week, close to the lowest level in more than 50 years, according to Freddie Mac.

Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the FHA, which together account for 90 percent of the U.S. residential mortgage market, would be given permission to begin refinancing plans for borrowers that are current on their mortgage payments and not considered seriously delinquent, according to the sources.

While the administration is under pressure to firm up the details, it is not yet clear whether borrowers seeking to take out a loan that is more than 80 percent of the value of the home would qualify for refinancing. The White House has kept the specifics of the refinancing plan closely guarded as it attempts to work out the details.

White House officials had long been wary of trying aggressive new programs to revive the housing market. The prevailing view at the White House over much of the last two years was that any remedies would cause at least as many problems as they solved.

A mainstay of the administration's housing initiative, rolled out in April 2009, has fallen short of expectations. Known as the Home Affordable Refinance Program, it was originally intended to help 4 million to 5 million homeowners avoid foreclosure. As of May it had helped only about 810,000 homeowners refinance into loans with lower rates, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency.

But Democrats close to the White House said the weakness in the economy and the drop in mortgage rates have led officials to take a second look at ideas that could bolster the housing market and ease the strain on household budgets.

Analysts who favor action say housing is at the heart of the economy's woes and that its moribund state is creating a risk of a Japanese-style "lost decade" of economic stagnation.

"We can either spend the better part of a decade allowing households to gradually work off their debt burden," said William Galston, a scholar at the Brookings Institution think tank. "Option number two is that we try to jump-start the process."

"I think it's time to go back to the drawing board," he added.

CHICKEN OR THE EGG

Some economists, however, believe the strain the housing market is putting on the rest of the economy can be addressed in other ways, such as using infrastructure spending and tax credits to encourage hiring in order to reinvigorate growth.

Christina Romer, a former top economic adviser to Obama, said that compared to other measures to address the economy's woes, a housing-specific program could be expensive. She noted that homeowners tend to be wealthier than the general population so such programs would not be targeted to people most in need.

"A bold jobs program might be just as effective and better targeted to those who need help the most. Also, healing the economy is as likely to heal the housing market as programs aimed directly at housing," said Romer, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley.

And while refinancing has accounted for the majority of mortgage applications for many months now, according to weekly data from the Mortgage Bankers Association, there is no evidence that the refinancings are providing a spur to consumer spending.

The refinancing initiative under consideration by the Obama administration mirrors a plan contained in legislation co-authored by Senator Barbara Boxer, a California Democrat, and Senator Johnny Isakson, a Republican from Georgia.

In a letter on Monday to Edward DeMarco, acting head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which regulates Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Boxer argued that the plan would provide a "dual benefit."

She said it would help Fannie and Freddie avoid losses, since fewer borrowers would fall delinquent, while providing a boost to the economy.

BONDHOLDERS ON THE LOSING END

The loudest objections are being registered by holders of mortgage bonds, who would take a hit if loans are paid off early.

Some fund managers have loaded up on agency mortgage-backed securities, those bonds backed by mortgages guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Government National Mortgage Association, because they offer higher yields than U.S. Treasuries.

Last week, the $5.4 trillion agency MBS market recorded one of its worst weeks in a year as traders dumped mortgage bonds out of concern the White House would put forward a plan that would shoulder them with losses.

While mortgage rates have been hovering around record low levels, banks remain stingy with lending although they are sitting on more than $1 trillion in excess reserves. Homeowners without a job or good credit histories have been essentially shut out of the refinancing process.

Some investors say the economic benefit of a government-encouraged refinancing wave would be minimal.

"It's a political hail Mary. It's unclear why they want to throw a monkey wrench into a $5 trillion market," said John Kerschner, head of securitized products at Janus Capital Group in Denver. He said the net benefits for the economy are negligible, perhaps adding $20 billion to $30 billion "at best" to the U.S. economy.

(Additional reporting by Richard Leong in New York; Editing by Leslie Adler)

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White House seeks ideas to shrink foreclosure glut (Reuters)

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Obama administration is looking for new ideas to shrink a glut of foreclosed properties held by mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae (FNMA.OB) and Freddie Mac (FMCC.OB) that are weighing down the housing market and hurting home prices.

The U.S. Treasury Department, the Federal Housing Finance Agency and the Department of Housing and Urban Development said on Wednesday they were considering alternatives including turning the foreclosed properties into rental homes.

"It's critical that we support the process of repair and recovery in the housing market," Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said in a statement.

"Exploring new options for selling these foreclosed properties will help expand access to affordable rental housing, promote private investment in local housing markets, and support neighborhood and home price stability."

A "request for information" the administration is putting out doesn't endorse a particular long-term option to stabilize the housing market. Instead, it asks for input from those with private capital willing to work with the government on buying foreclosures and expanding access to rental properties.

The government is open to comments through September 15.

Obama administration officials said they were looking for private partners to remove as much as $30 billion in single-family real estate owned properties (REOs) that would be available for sale and are currently on the books of Fannie, Freddie, and the Federal Housing Administration.

REOs are properties owned by a lender, such as a bank or government agency, after an unsuccessful sale at a foreclosure auction.

Among possible investors, officials said they were looking for private-equity funds, financial institutions, and perhaps local governments and nonprofits to buy foreclosed properties and offer them as rentals in stressed housing markets.

Another approach the White House is eyeing would allow investors to partner with Fannie and Freddie in a joint venture to buy a pool of converted rental homes, with an equitable split between the government entities and investors to reduce losses at the mortgage giants, Fannie and Freddie.

Such partnerships with private-sector investors "may reduce taxpayer losses" said Edward DeMarco, acting director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, in a statement.

Treasury and FHFA seized control of Fannie and Freddie almost three years ago amid fears the two were at risk of failing and so far they have cost taxpayers more than $140 billion. The government-sponsored enterprises, or GSEs, own or guarantee more than half of the almost $11 trillion in U.S. residential mortgage debt.

The administration said its mortgage-assistance programs aimed to help distressed borrowers will continue while it tests the waters for investors willing to buy pooled properties and rent them out.

(Reporting by Margaret Chadbourn, Editing by Andrea Ricci)

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