Showing posts with label shift. Show all posts
Showing posts with label shift. Show all posts

Monday, September 26, 2011

Fed to shift $400B in holdings to boost economy (AP)

By MARTIN CRUTSINGER, AP Economics Writer Martin Crutsinger, Ap Economics Writer – Wed Sep 21, 5:51 pm ET

WASHINGTON – The Federal Reserve will use more than $400 billion to try to drive down long-term interest rates, make home and business loans cheaper and invigorate the economy.

Analysts said the moves would provide only a slight economic benefit.

The action the Fed announced Wednesday is modest compared with previous steps it's taken. The Fed won't expand its $2.9 trillion holdings; it's just rebalancing them.

It will sell $400 billion of its shorter-term Treasurys to buy longer-term Treasurys by June 2012. And it will reinvest principal payments from its mortgage-backed securities, to help keep mortgage rates at super-low levels.

Fed policymakers announced the moves after a two-day meeting. Three members out of 10 dissented from the decision. The Fed acted despite criticism from Republicans who have warned that such steps could ignite inflation.

"The actions the Fed has taken are helpful," says Josh Feinman, global chief economist at DB Advisors. "They will help hold down long-term rates, but they're no panacea."

The Fed left open the possibility of taking further action to try to strengthen the economy.

Stocks dropped immediately after the announcement around 2:20 p.m. and then continued falling. The Dow Jones industrial average closed down about 283 points.

But the yield on the 10-year Treasury note tumbled to 1.86 — the lowest since the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis started keeping daily records in 1962. The 10-year yield is used to peg rates on a variety of loans, including long-term mortgages.

The plan the Fed unveiled Wednesday, dubbed "Operation Twist," resembles a program the Fed used in the early 1960s to "twist" long-term rates lower relative to short-term rates.

In its statement, the Fed noted that the economy is growing slowly, unemployment is high and housing remains in a prolonged slump.

Under its plan, the Fed will extend the average maturity of its holdings from six years to eight years. The Fed has directed the New York Fed to buy Treasurys with remaining maturities of six to 30 years, and to sell an equal amount of securities with maturities of three years or less.

Analysts say the shift in the Fed's portfolio could reduce borrowing costs and perhaps raise stock prices.

"This is a measured response to weak economic conditions," said David Jones, head of DMJ Advisors and the author of four books on the Fed. "The Fed is still trying but it can only do so much."

In June, the Fed completed a $600 billion bond-buying program that many economists have credited with keeping rates low.

He said that just the market anticipation of the Fed's Operation Twist had sent long-term rates down by around 25 basis points for the 10-year bond. He said that without the Fed's move Wednesday, those rates would have risen. With the move, he predicted the 10-year bond would probably fall by another 5 basis points.

Once the Fed announced last month that it would expand its September policy meeting from one to two days, economists anticipated some new action. Chairman Ben Bernanke had said the Fed was considering a range of options.

The Fed's move Wednesday came despite a rift within the central bank. The three members who dissented also did so at the Fed's August meeting — the most negative votes in nearly two decades.

The three dissenters — Richard Fisher, Narayana Kocherlakota and Charles Plosser, all regional Fed bank presidents — have said the Fed's policies may be raising the risk of high inflation. They favor giving the economy more time to heal without further Fed action.

Still, the central bank is under pressure to revive an economy that has limped along for more than two years since the recession officially ended.

In the first six months of this year, the economy grew at an annual rate of just 0.7 percent. The housing market remains depressed. The unemployment rate is 9.1 percent. In August, the economy didn't add any jobs, and consumers didn't increase their spending on retail goods.

Most economists foresee growth of less than 2 percent for the entire year. They say the odds of another recession are about one in three.

The Fed has offered its own bleak outlook. At its August policy meeting, it said the economy would likely struggle for at least two more years. As a result, it said it planned to keep short-term rates near record lows until mid-2013, as long as the economy remained weak.

Historically low mortgage rates, now averaging 4.09 percent on a 30-year fixed loan, have done little to boost either home purchases or refinancings.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said 30-year rates, should fall further after the Fed's action. Yet many would-be home buyers don't have the required down payments or are reluctant to buy at a time when prices are still falling in many areas. And many homeowners have no equity and can't refinance.

Bernanke's policymaking has incited criticism from congressional Republicans and GOP presidential candidates. Some have argued that the Fed's $600 billion bond-buying program raised inflation pressures, weakened the dollar's value against other currencies and contributed to a spike in oil prices.

On Monday, the four highest-ranking Republicans in Congress sent Bernanke a letter cautioning the Fed against taking further steps to lower interest rates. Their letter suggested that lower rates could escalate the risk of high inflation.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who is seeking the GOP nomination for president, has gone so far as to say Bernanke would be "almost treasonous" to launch more bond buying.

The Fed's efforts to stimulate the economy through low rates are occurring at a time when Congress is focused more on shrinking spending.

President Barack Obama has proposed a $447 billion job-creation program made up mainly of tax cuts and public works spending. Obama also wants the richest Americans to pay higher taxes to help cut federal budget deficits.

Obama's proposals face an uncertain fate in Congress. Republicans have dismissed his deficit-reduction plan and have focused on efforts to reduce spending and keep taxes low for everyone.

___

AP Business Writer Derek Kravitz contributed to this report.


Browse your computer here

Sunday, September 25, 2011

US mortgage finance head: shift risk from Treasury (AP)

By EMERY P. DALESIO, AP Business Writer Emery P. Dalesio, Ap Business Writer – Mon Sep 19, 3:25 pm ET

RALEIGH, N.C. – Government-controlled mortgage buyers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may reduce taxpayer risk by requiring more mortgage insurance from borrowers and charging lenders higher fees, steps that could increase borrowing costs, the head of their government caretaker agency said Monday.

Reshaping the mortgage giants three years after the federal government took over them over requires spreading lending risks, Federal Housing Finance Agency acting director Edward DeMarco said Monday at a mortgage conference in Raleigh.

The changes that could lead to higher costs for borrowers would be pursued gradually over time to avoid shocking the weak housing market, DeMarco said. But with Washington still unable to restructure Fannie and Freddie, the FHFA needed to act under its own statutory authority to ensure Fannie and Freddie continued to keep money flowing into financing home purchases, DeMarco said.

"We all knew that reforming the housing finance system was going to be difficult, but I think the general expectation was that more progress would have been made by now," DeMarco said.

Reducing the risk to taxpayers may mean private interests taking on more risk, perhaps by requiring more private mortgage insurance from borrowers and higher fees from lenders to guarantee loans, DeMarco said.

The federal government took control of the two massive mortgage buyers in 2008 to prevent their collapse as the housing market deteriorated. Bush administration officials said the action was needed to protect taxpayers and continue the availability of mortgages.

Fannie and Freddie buy home loans from banks and other lenders, package them into bonds with a guarantee against default, and sell them to investors around the world. The mortgage giants charge lenders a guarantee fee that covers projected credit losses from borrower defaults over the life of the loans. Fannie and Freddie will likely begin increasing those fees starting next year, DeMarco said.

President Barack Obama's deficit reduction package released Monday includes a proposal for Fannie and Freddie to increase guarantee fees by one-tenth of one percent for new mortgages, adding less than $15 a month to a typical $220,000 home loan. The administration said the increase would save the budget $28 billion over 10 years.

Changes in loan guarantee fees could vary based on the risk of loans and the borrower's location, with higher fees in states where it is more expensive and time-consuming for banks to foreclose on property, he said.

"These are steps we can take and we think that we're charged with taking that are supportive in that direction," DeMarco said in an interview with reporters after his talk. "Consumers will ultimately measure this by the price and availability of mortgage credit, and in a more macro sense ... whether there's a sense of stability or confidence in housing markets."

Talk of raising borrowing costs while home sales are slow is part of the dichotomy of expectations the housing finance agencies are facing, said Michael Lea, who directs real estate studies at the San Diego State University business school and a former chief economist at Freddie Mac. The FHFA can't afford to raise costs to borrowers now, but removing taxpayer support has to come eventually, he said.

"It's a tough situation because they get pressure from both sides on that," Lea said.

The FHFA's most pressing tasks include creating a framework allowing more borrowers who are underwater on their mortgages to refinance at rates now at levels not seen in decades. Few people are qualifying to refinance a home because they don't have the equity needed to refinance.

FHFA is considering expanding its Home Affordable Refinance Program to allow some borrowers whose mortgages are held by Fannie and Freddie to refinance into lower-rate loans even if they owe greater than 125 percent more than their home is worth, DeMarco said

The second key current priority is figuring out how Fannie and Freddie can resell thousands of government-owned foreclosures to improve returns to taxpayers and help boost falling home prices. A federal "request for information" seeking ideas closed last week resulted in nearly 4,000 proposals, many tailored to local economic conditions around the country. One of the ideas FHFA is considering is allowing previous homeowners to rent out the homes or for current renters to lease to own.

___

Emery Dalesio can be reached at http://twitter.com/emerydalesio


Browse your computer here