Which new and returning shows will triumphantly survive their fall launch? Which shows will hand out leaflets on the corner begging for more viewers? After chatting with analysts, poring over network research data and adding a dash of our own thoughts, here’s 10 predictions. Just remember, only one thing is certain: At least one new show’s performance always ends up surprising everybody.

Biggest New Drama: ABC’s Nashville
When: Wednesdays at 10
Why: If this series isn’t a hit, the industry should schedule a weekend retreat to re-examine what they think they know about TV. The Connie Britton/Hayden Panettiere soap has a great pilot, it’s perfect for ABC’s female-skewing audience, and programs that tout country music often draw huge numbers. Plus, Nashville airs after ABC’s popular comedy block. Can’t lose, riiiight?
Runners-up: ABC’s 666 Park Ave. (it’s sexy, scary and could be the dark horse breakout of the fall); CBS’ Elementary (Sherlock Holmes on CBS is a no brainer, unless viewers are finally getting tired of Det. Know-It-All shows); The CW’s Arrow (at last, a CW drama that guys can watch too).
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